Wikipedian explained why Zelensky had won: различия между версиями

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{{Article date|10 мая 2019}}
{{Topic|History|Psychology|Philosophy|Futurology}}
[[Файл:Dmitry Koshelev in Moscow 05.jpg|thumb|left|300px|A lecture ofby [[Дмитрий Кошелев|Dmitry Koshelev]].]]
Russian Wikipedian [[Дмитрий Кошелев|Dmitry Koshelev]] presented his concept of the [[:en:w:World history|world history]] based on the theory of [[:en:w:Jungian archetypes|archetypes]] by [[:en:w:Carol S. Pearson|Carol S. Pearson]]. Two lectures called «[[c:File:Are the new Dark Ages possible (2019-04-29).pdf|Are the new Dark Ages possible?]]» took place on [[4 апреля 2019 года|April 4]] in [[:en:w:Tyumen|Tyumen]] and on [[29 апреля 2019 года|April 29]] in [[:en:w:Moscow|Moscow]]. Both of them passed in the «[[Точка кипения|Boiling point]]», organized by the [[:en:w:Agency for Strategic Initiatives (Russia)|Agency of Strategic Initiatives (Russia)]].
 
According to the author, the first who used the archetypes to explain and predict historical events was the Swiss psychiatrist Carl Gustav Jung. In the article «Wotan», written in 1936, Jung suggested that Nazism was a manifestation of the influence of the archetype of God Odin on the German people. Because Odin is the German god of war, the founder of analytical psychology has been able to predict World War II without being an expert in politics or futurology.
 
The concept of Jungian archetypes became very popular in the differential psychology; it served as the basis for MBTI, the most popular questionnaire in the world using in career counseling, and for the socionics, no less popular in Russia. However, Koshelev used in his historiosophical concept a model of 12 archetypes, which works in his own project called «Fortunengineering», dedicated to career counseling. The model was created in 1991 by the American philologist Carol S. Pearson, its foundation was not only the works by Jung, but also the archetypal psychology of James Hillman and the doctrine of the hero’s journey by Joseph Campbell.
 
According to 12 Pearson's archetypes, the Wikipedian divided the world history into consecutive eras:
# Age of Innocent (66-364 AD) - a time when many famous religious figures appeared (Jesus Christ, Basilides, Mani, etc.);
# Age of Orphan (313-536) - a time of the fall of the Roman Empire, the Sixteen Kingdoms in China, the extreme weather events of 535-536 years, Mazdakism (the first version of communism in the history);
# Age of Warrior (451-778) - a time of the legendary warriors. Such as Siegfried, Dietrich von Bern or Roland;
# Age of Caregiver (768-1054) - a time of several “revivals” at once (Carolingian Renaissance, Ottonian Renaissance, Islamic Golden Age);
# Age of Seeker (1000-1276) - a time of the Norse colonization of North America, the Crusades, and an appearance of founders of the modern science (scholastics);
# Age of Lover (1135-1574) - a time of Gothic art, courtly love literature, the Dolce Stil Novo (love lyrics of Dante and Petrarch);
# Age of Destroyer (1315-1526) - the crisis of the Late Middle Ages, the Early Renaissance;
# Age of Creator (1496-1669) - High Renaissance and Northern Renaissance. The time of activity of many symbolic figures of the world culture (Leonardo da Vinci, Michelangelo, Raphael, Shakespeare);
# Age of Ruler (499-168 BC, 1598-1789) - a time of making large transcontinental empires (the state of Alexander the Great, the Roman Republic, the Han dynasty, the Maurya Empire, the British Empire, the Spanish Empire, the Qing dynasty), absolutism and classicism;
# Age of Magician (308-45 BC, 1775-1895) - a time of creation of the Hellenistic religion and astrology, animal magnetism and spiritualism, the revival of Hesychasm;
# Age of Sage (141 BC – 138 AD, 1859-1991) - the Roman architectural revolution, the creation of the Great Silk Road, the invention of paper, the modern technological revolution, the “welfare state”, the modernity;
# Age of Jester (65 BC – 235 AD, since 1967) – an apogee of gladiatorial battles in Ancient Rome, the richest athlete in the world history (Guy Appuleius Diocles), now – the postmodernity (the sexual revolution, gamification, increasing of the show business and economic bubbles).
 
[[Файл:Dmitry Koshelev in Moscow 04.jpg|thumb|left|300px|A lecture by Dmitry Koshelev.]]
According to Koshelev, if the concept proposed by him is correct, it will allow for both short-term and long-term forecasting. In this way, it can be compared with the psychohistory that is mentioned in Isaac Asimov’s series of novels, «The Foundation».
 
As a long-term forecast, the speaker suggested that the tendency to relocate people to megalopolises will continue for another 100-150 years, and then we should wait for the counterurbanization. He compares the future period with the return of the Age of Orphan, of which he considers the Anastasianism to be the forerunners. A little earlier, the Age of Innocent will return, the inevitability of which the speaker justified by such facts as the Islamic revival, the New Age and new religious movements.
 
For modernity the most relevant is all about entertainment - this is exactly the character of the archetype Jester, as its symbol the blogger called the ancient Greek god Dionysus. As the author said, in order to achieve maximum personal success these days, you need to behave like a pop star. By this factor, he explains the success in the presidential election of people like Donald Trump and Vladimir Zelensky.
 
At the same time, as Koshelev [https://medium.com/fortunengineering/history-presentation-moscow-75cbbcba8e9 wrote] in his blog post at May 6 about the accident of the Aeroflot Flight 1492 in Sheremetyevo, for today's psychology of society:
{{цитата|The scientific and technological achievements of the 20th century are too complex to be repeated, and sometimes even simply maintained.}}
 
The audience’s reaction to the presentation was very different. As the Tyumen online newspaper «Vsluh.ru» [http://www.vsluh.ru/news/society/340163 reports] about the lecture on April 4, some listeners expressed the view that using of archetypes is impossible. At the same time, the editor-in-chief of the «Moskovskij Komsomolets in Tyumen» Vyacheslav Devyatkov [https://tumen.mk.ru/social/2019/04/17/v-tochke-kipeniya-obsudili-vliyanie-na-razvitie-sociuma-tekh-ili-inykh-psikhotipov.html was] more supportive of the speaker:
{{цитата|In fact, the question is open. But the relationship of history and psychology probably still exists. According to psychologists, everyday mistakes, technological disasters, economic downturns, terrorist attacks, mental health problems - these are all phenomena of the same order.}}
 
Private trader Alexander Pytiev, who was present at the presentation in Moscow, told our correspondent that he
{{цитата|«…is always interested in theories that work on a personal level, a level of an individual, and also have claims to bring to a level of analytical continuations. Firstly, to small organized groups, and then to more and more large communities. I liked the presentation, it was interestingly designed. The format of the discussion wasn’t very successful, but it seems to become better in future.}}
 
Private investor Stanislav Taktaev, who also participated in the Moscow presentation, shared the following opinion with our correspondent:
{{цитата|In his speech, Dmitry Koshelev set an interesting predictive model relevant to what happened in history and is happening now in the world. How much it really works, we will find out soon. The archetypal approach itself, of course, is controversial, but the experience of its practical use, for example, in mass art allows us to think that it has real grounds for it.}}
 
<center>
<gallery mode="packed-hover" heights="500">
Dmitry Koshelev in Moscow 02.jpg|<center>A lecture by Dmitry Koshelev.</center>
Dmitry Koshelev in Moscow 03.jpg|<center>A lecture by Dmitry Koshelev.</center>
Dmitry Koshelev in Moscow 01.jpg|<center>Communication after the lecture with Dmitry Koshelev.</center>
</gallery>
</center>
 
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== Sources ==