Wikipedian explained why Zelensky had won: различия между версиями

Russian Wikipedian [[Дмитрий Кошелев|Dmitry Koshelev]] has presented his concept of the [[:en:w:World history|world history]] based on the theory of [[:en:w:Archetype|archetypes]] by [[:en:w:Carol S. Pearson|Carol S. Pearson]]. Two lectures called «[[c:File:Are the new Dark Ages possible (2019-04-29).pdf|Are the new Dark Ages possible?]]» took place on [[4 апреля 2019 года|April, 4]] in [[:en:w:Tyumen|Tyumen]] and on [[29 апреля 2019 года|April, 29]] in [[:en:w:Moscow|Moscow]]. Both of them were held at the venues called «[[Точка кипения|Boiling point]]», operated by [[:en:w:Agency for Strategic Initiatives (Russia)|Agency of Strategic Initiatives (Russia)]].
According to the author, the first man who used the archetypes concept to explain and [[:en:w:Forecasting|predict]] [[:en:w:history|historical]] events was the [[:en:w:Switzerland|Swiss]] psychiatrist [[:en:w:Carl Jung|Carl Gustav Jung]]. In the article «Wotan», written in [[:en:w:1936|1936]], Jung suggested that [[:en:w:Nazism|Nazism]] was a manifestation of the influence of the archetype of Godgod [[:en:w:Odin|Odin]] archetype to the [[:en:w:Germans|German people]]. BecauseAs long as Odin is the German [[d:Q41863069|god of war]], the founder of [[:en:w:Analytical psychology|analytical psychology]] has been able to [[:en:w:prediction|predict]] [[:en:w:|World War II]] without being an expert in [[:en:w:politics|politics]] or [[:en:w:futurology|futurology]].
The concept of [[:en:w:Jungian archetypes|Jungian archetypes]] becameturned out to be very popular in [[w:en:Differential psychology|differential psychology]]; it served asfor creating the basisworld forpopular [[:en:w:Myers–Briggs Type Indicator|MBTI]], the most popular questionnaire in the world used in [[:en:w:Career counseling|career counseling]] test, and for the [[w:en:socionics|socionics]], which is alsono less popular in [[:en:w:Russia|Russia]]. However, in his [[:en:w:Philosophy of history|historiosophical]] concept Koshelev has used a model of 12 archetypes, which works in his own project called «Fortunengineering», dedicated to career counseling. The model was created in [[:en:w:1991|1991]] by the [[:en:w:United States|American]] philologist Carol S. Pearson, its foundation was not only due to works by Jung, but also the [[:en:w:Archetypal psychology|archetypal psychology]] of [[:en:w:James Hillman|James Hillman]] and the doctrine of the [[:en:w:Hero's journey|hero’s journey]] by [[:en:w:Joseph Campbell|Joseph Campbell]].
According to 12 Pearson's archetypes, the Wikipedian has divided the world history into consecutive eras:
# Age of Magician ([[:en:w:308 BC|308]]—[[:en:w:45 BC|45 BC]], [[:en:w:1775|1775]]—[[:en:w:1895|1895]]) — period of creation of the [[:en:w:Hellenism (religion)|Hellenistic religion]] and [[:en:w:Hellenistic astrology|astrology]], [[:en:w:Animal magnetism|animal magnetism]] and [[:en:w:Spiritism|spiritism]], the revival of [[:en:w:Hesychasm|Hesychasm]];
# Age of Sage ([[:en:w:141 BC|141 BC]] — [[:en:w:138|138 AD]], [[:en:w:1859|1859]]—[[:en:w:1991|1991]]) — [[:en:w:Roman architectural revolution|Roman architectural revolution]], creation of the [[:en:w:Silk Road|Great Silk Road]], [[:en:w:Cai Lun#Invention of paper|invention of paper]], modern [[:en:w:Technological revolution|technological revolution]], the «[[:en:w:Welfare state|welfare state]]», the [[:en:w:Modernity|modernity]];
# Age of Jester ([[:en:w:65 BC|65 BC]] — [[:en:w:235|235 AD]], since [[:en:w:1967|1967]]) — apogee of [[:en:w:Gladiator|gladiatorial]] combats in [[:en:w:Ancient Rome|Ancient Rome]], the richest [[:en:w:Athlete|athlete]] in the world history ([[:en:w:Gaius Appuleius Diocles|Guy Appuleius Diocles]]), now – the [[:en:w:Postmodernity|postmodernity]] (the [[:en:w:Sexual revolution|sexual revolution]], [[:en:w:Gamification|gamification]], riseheyday of [[:en:w:Show business|show business]] and [[:en:w:Economic bubble|economic bubbles]]).
[[Файл:Dmitry Koshelev in Moscow 04.jpg|thumb|left|300px|A lecture by Dmitry Koshelev.]]
According to Koshelev, if the concept proposed by him is correct, it will allow both short-term and long-term forecasting. In this way, it can be compared with the [[:en:w:Psychohistory (fictional)|psychohistory]] that is mentioned in [[:en:w:Isaac Asimov|Isaac Asimov]]’s series of novels, the «[[:en:w:Foundation series|Foundation]]».
As a long-term forecast, the speaker suggested that the tendency to relocate people to [[:en:w:Megalopolis|megalopolises]] will continue for another 100—150 years, and then we should wait for [[:en:w:Counterurbanization|de-urbanization]]. He compares the future period with the return of the Age of Orphan, of which he considers the [[:en:w:Ringing Cedars' Anastasianism|Anastasianism]] to be the forerunners. A little earlier, the Age of Innocent will return, the inevitability of which the speaker justified by such facts as the [[:en:w:Islamic revival|Islamic revival]], [[:en:w:New Age|New Age]] faith and [[:en:w:New religious movement|new religious movements]].
and the [[:en:w:Ringing Cedars' Anastasianism|Anastasianism]] is considered to be the forerunners of it. A little earlier, the Age of Innocent will return, and the speaker justified the inevitability of it by such facts as the [[:en:w:Islamic revival|Islamic revival]], [[:en:w:New Age|New Age]] faith and [[:en:w:New religious movement|new religious movements]].
For modernitytoday, the most relevant things are [[:en:w:Entertainment|entertainment]]-related: is the most relevant and this is exactlythe ascharacteristic the characterfeature of the archetype called Jester, the lecturer statedcalled he viewedthe [[:en:w:Ancient Greek religion|ancient Greek god]] [[:en:w:Dionysus|Dionysus]] as Jester'sthe symbol of it. As the author said, in order to achieve maximum personal success these days, one need to behave like a [[:en:w:Celebrity|pop star]]. ByHe this factor, he explained the success ofexplains [[:en:w:PresidentialDonald electionTrump|presidentialDonald electionsTrump]]’s of people likeand [[:en:w:DonaldVolodymyr TrumpZelensky|DonaldVladimir TrumpZelensky]]’s andsuccess in [[:en:w:VolodymyrPresidential Zelenskyelection|Vladimirpresidential Zelenskyelections]] by these factors.
At the same time, as Koshelev [ wrote] in his [[:en:w:Blog|blog]] post at [[6 мая 2019 года|May 6]] about the [[:en:w:Aeroflot Flight 1492|accident of the Aeroflot Flight 1492]] in [[:en:w:Sheremetyevo International Airport|Sheremetyevo]], for today's [[:en:w:Group dynamics|group dynamics]]:
{{цитата|The scientific and technological achievements of the [[:en:w:20th century|20th century]] are too complexcomplicated to be repeated, and sometimes even simply maintainedmaintain.}}
The audience’s reaction to the presentation was very different. As the Tyumen [[:en:w:Online newspaper|online newspaper]] «» [ reported] about the lecture on April, 4, some listenerspeople expressed the view that usage of archetypes is impossible. At the same time, the editor-in-chief of the «[[:en:w:Moskovskij Komsomolets|Moskovskij Komsomolets in Tyumen]]» newspaper Vyacheslav Devyatkov [ was] more supportive of the speaker:
{{цитата|In fact, the question is open. But probably there is the relationshipconnection ofbetween history and psychology probably still exists. According to [[:en:w:Psychologist|psychologists]], everyday mistakes in life, [[:d:Q68800046|industrial disasters]], [[:en:w:Recession|recessions]], terrorist incidents, [[:en:w:Mental health|mental health]] problems — these are all phenomena of the same type.}}
Private [[:en:w:Trader (finance)|trader]] Alexander Pytiev, who was present at the presentation in Moscow, told our [[w:Correspondent|correspondent]] that he
{{цитата|«…is always interested in theories that work on personal level, a level of an individual, and alsothen have claimsmove to bring to a level of analyticalanalytic continuationscontinuation. Firstly, to smaller organized groups, and later to more and more large communities. I liked the presentation, it washas the interestinglyexciting designeddesign. The format of the discussion wasn’t very successful, but it seems to become better in future.}}
Private [[:en:w:Investor|investor]] Stanislav Taktaev, who also participated in the Moscow presentation, shared the following opinion with our correspondent:
{{цитата|In his speech, Dmitry Koshelev set an interesting predictive model relevant to what happened in historythe past and is happening now in the world now. HowWe muchwill itfind reallyout works,soon wewhether willit findreally out soonworks. The question of archetypal approach itself, of course, is controversial, but the experience of its practical use, for example, in mass art allows us to think that it has real grounds for itbasis.}}